SPECIES [NOT] AT RISK

Somehow polar bears became the symbol of climate change and species extinction. It makes some sense how this creature arrived at it poster child status. Polar bears are distributed all across the most northern regions of the globe and, given that they are the apex predator in this most climate change-impacted region, folks expected these animals to be the first and most visibly suffering. And now countless news reports, environmental campaigns, and viral social media posts tell us the polar bear is on the verge of extinction. However, whomever pressed out this message to the world made some tragic education and communication missteps.

When you go looking for information about this species, no part of this dire tale appears to be playing out. According to the IUCN Polar Bear Specialist Group and the WWF, we have little or no data for nine of nineteen major polar bear populations, such as those in parts of Russia, Eastern Greenland, and the Arctic Basin. More problematic still, the data we do have, compiled at the IUCN, suggests the vast majority of known populations to be healthy. Seven of ten populations, including many of the largest populations, each of which has several thousand members, are stable. Worse for the running narrative, of the remaining three populations two are growing and only one is showing signs of decline. This is a real concern if you’re trying to sensationalize and push out news pieces about species extinctions and climate change.

Findings such as this caused me to go looking for details about the population health of those other keystone and charismatic species we tend to get excited about. What I found was far from depressing.

Bald Eagle:

Bald eagles reached an all-time low of 417 known nesting pairs in 1963 in America's lower 48 states. (You can blame DDT.) But the bald eagle was removed from the list of threatened and endangered species in 2007. And in 2009 a US Fish and Wildlife Service survey found roughly 72,000 individuals. By last count, in December of 2020, there were an estimated 316,000 bald eagles in America.

Peregrine Falcon:

As recent as the 1970s, the peregrine was placed on the endangered list, with American Midwestern and Eastern populations effectively eradicated and the total population reduced to just 12% of its of its former abundance. In places like Alberta, for example, only three breeding pairs were observed around this time, down from 55 documented prior to the introduction of DDT. But over the next few decades more than 6,000 captive-bred animals were released by organizations all across North American and in 1999 the species was removed from endangered lists. In 2017 peregrine's were moved to the Not At Risk category under Canada's Species at Risk Act and in Alberta today there are an estimated 75 breeding pairs.

Bison:

The high estimate for plains bison population numbers prior to European arrival in North America is 60,000,000. By the dawn of the 20th century, only about 400, just 0.06% of their original population, remained. In the century that followed this near extinction, virtually all of their original range was severed first by barbed wire and cattle ranches, and then train tracks and eventually highways. Despite this, a concerted effort to bring back these majestic beasts has been relatively successful. The current bison population may be as high as 500,000 individuals, roughly 1-2% of their original abundance. Though their numbers remain relatively small, given the tremendous transformation and loss of so much of their original habitat this return feels like a significant triumph. Doubtless, still more can be done.

Grey Wolf:

Some estimate that around two million wolves once roamed North America. Prior to their being listed as endangered and put under protection in the 1960s, a US federal wolf extermination campaign resulted in their catastrophic decline. After decades of reintroduction, about 14,000 grey wolves live in the US, though they only occupy roughly 10% of their former territory. But with thousands of wolves returning to states like Colorado, Montana, and Minnesota, in March of 2019 the US Fish and Wildlife Service delisted the grey wolf. By contrast to the US, within Canada wolves roam across 90% of their earlier habitat and number greater than 50,000. Looking globally, the IUCN Red List suggests the grey wolf population is stable and categorizes these animals as Least Concern.

Humpback Whale:

When I was born there were virtually no humpback whales being spotted off the coast of Vancouver or anywhere in the straits of Georgia or Juan de Fuca or anywhere surrounding Vancouver Island. Decimated by whaling, and the local commercial hunt only ending as recently as 1966, the Vancouver Aquarium tells us that prior to the ‘90s less than ten individuals were seen in the area in a given year. However, since then the species managed to build its numbers back up to where, by the early 2000s, we were seeing 800-1,000 annually in the waters off Vancouver Island. Today, the IUCN Red List tells us the global population is on the increase and currently categorized as Least Concern. Estimates of the global humpback whale population in pre-whaling times suggest there were somewhere around 125,000 individuals and current assessments put the number of mature humpbacks alive today in the region of 84,000.

So, we have these examples of what can be done on a large scale and from the brink of catastrophe. I think we need to share more about such victories (which offer hope and direction) and share fewer predictions of impending doom (which keep being wildly wrong.)