THE WRETCHED BLEMISH
What’s the deal with the measles? (Offered in the tone and tempo of Jerry Seinfeld, of course.) Measles outbreaks are taking up a lot of time and space, even here in Canada, in the traditional and new press. Along with that, I keep reading that RFK Jr, the new head of America’s Health and Human Services, is promoting things backward and upside down as preventatives or cures and generally making everything worse, as he's always so determined to do.
So what do you suspect I will find if, as objectively as possible, I attempt to learn about the history of measles in America, the recent scenario and current outbreak, and go and look up what the HHS leadership has been offering the public during what some (medical professionals in the media and publishing on social media) claim could be the start of a major epidemic? Let’s find out? (LOOK OUT, HE’S DOING HIS OWN RESEARCH!)
HISTORY
When I go looking, I find that data on measles was first gathered in the US in 1912. That year it became a nationally notifiable disease and, thusly, any cases and deaths from the illness required formal reporting and recording. I learn that the case rate was up around 700 per 100,000 people (among a total US population of 100,000,000) and that fatalities from the disease in that year were approximately 6,000. And I learn that average annual cases through the 1910s and 1920s were in the same range, as were fatalities, likely somewhere between 5,000 and 7,000. I also learn that a licensed and publicly available vaccination against this illness wouldn’t arrive for another forty years, not until 1963.
So, I wonder, what did the death totals look like in the 1940s and ‘50s? Why that's interesting is that this period was still prior to a vaccine but the population was far larger and with far more folks living in close quarters in the city (with the country going from about 45% urban to nearly 70%, many major cities doubling or quadrupling in population, and with a booming infant cohort.) One might expect yearly measles cases way up and deaths to be approaching 10,000 at that time (and maybe this regular and significant loss of life is what spurred a more vigorous search for a vaccine…) That's what I assumed. Well, if like me you thought that you would be dead wrong. That was not the situation, not at all.
Though the data isn’t great, annual average fatalities from measles in the decades immediately prior to vaccine appear to have seen a dramatic decline. Deaths were down from several thousand annually in the first decades of the century to just a few hundred by mid-century.
It’s hard to be very precise with all this as many years in the pre-vaccine period are missing any numbers at all for deaths or cases, making all of this rather rough. Still, we know the measles picture went from a recorded annual case rate as high as almost 700 per 100,000 people, with a death rate as high as 13 per 100,000, to cases down around 200 per 100,000 and annual deaths averaging around 0.3 per 100,000. In 1962 and ‘63, still prior to popular mass vaccination against measles and really anyone having a shot deaths got even lower, down to around 0.2 per 100,000. Important for us here, the illness was not deemed sufficiently serious to require a national mass vaccination campaign, never mind mandatory one, and only 25,000 were vaccinated the year the shot was made available.
This fatality rate means there were somewhere between 250-500 annual deaths from measles. This was the typical death count in the decade before vaccination and was among a population of 150,000,000 seeing a monumental explosion of births reaching over 4,200,000 annually. I can’t find a great explanation for this decline. Might we reasonably assume better sanitation, public health provision, and nutrition all played some part? Perhaps. Most medical professionals seem to make this same assumption. (Though, maybe it was the combined impact of the introduction of bubble gum and the desegregation of baseball. Correlation is correlation!) There could be a simple and singular explanation but I don't think anyone would be surprised if the reasons were many and complex. Doubtless, having good numbers and thus some vague picture of the problem was, I imagine, key.
THE PRESENT
From there, it seems to me, it is easy to see that today effectively everyone who isn’t a young infant has immunity to measles, whether by vaccine or prior infection. Great. So why, exactly, is there a panic about measles? Are we seeing a lot of cases? Has it spread out of control? Well, what has the US CDC been saying (with weekly updates keeping things current) on this matter? Well, here are three of their graphs that paint a pretty clear picture of the real context on measles and the current outbreak:
So there are annual outbreaks. Every few years cases jump up and die down again for a few years. Only two years in the last 20 (2014 and 2019) have seen more than 400 cases. Cases! More than thirty years ago, annual cases were in the many thousands, regularly above 2,000 and even up above 25,000. And yet those numbers, in the thousands and tens of thousands, pale in comparison to the regular annual case numbers in the hundreds of thousands as recent as the 1960s — back when no one felt it necessary to offer mass vaccination or even require the infant population to be vaccinated against what was a relatively harmless illness that had become so rare. Right.
KENNEDY
MSNBC and the intrepid Rachel Maddow and Steve Benen report Robert Kennedy Jr. fails predictably as measles outbreak spreads. Verbally, Maddow goes a little harder than the title of this piece, telling us that at a Trump cabinet meeting “attention turned to the exploding outbreak of measles, that started in West Texas and has now spread at least into New Mexico, now at least 124 cases…” She tells us a child has died, an unvaccinated child. And she assures us that, in his new role, Kennedy is responsible for this “crisis”. Maddow explains that Kennedy “attempted” to deliver an update on the outbreak during this cabinet meeting but did little more than spread lies at every turn. She tells her audience that Kennedy downplayed the problem, what she insists is a national crisis, by offering a quote from him saying “It’s not unusual. We have measles outbreaks every year.” She retorts, “Like this is a normal thing.” (Dearest Maddow, see above CDC charts. Measles has never gone extinct; but cases have also never been so rare and harmless as in the 21st century.)
And then what does Maddow do? She shows that in the US in 2024 there were 285 measles cases (more than twice the current count and, of course, prior to Kennedy taking over the HHS.) She goes on from there to show Kennedy explaining how most of the measles cases were among anti-vax members of a Mennonite community and then she highlights how Kennedy misstated the situation, offering that two had died when only one had. Most amazingly of all, Maddow gifts us all this as confirmation of Kennedy’s transparent attempt to minimize the situation and press out his dastardly anti-vax message on a national stage. Go watch it. You just can’t make this shit up. But, of course, none of this sort of accounting was unique to this one outlet.
NPR decided they would play the same game. They went with Amid a growing measles outbreak, doctors worry RFK Jr. is sending the wrong message. There, Maria Godoy explained how two people had now died in the Texas outbreak. (What did Kennedy know!!??) She continues, telling us:
News of a second death comes as infectious disease doctors worry that the federal government's messaging about the outbreak is putting more emphasis on treatments like vitamin A than on vaccination, even as misinformation about some of these treatments is spreading online.
Those concerns come in the wake of recent comments made by Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Kennedy addressed the growing measles outbreak in an editorial for Fox News published on Sunday, also posted on the HHS website.
Okay. So, let’s go look at that editorial.
Titled Measles Outbreak is Call to Action for All of Us, you may be surprised what you find. If you read or listen to the press or spend any time on social media, especially if you were conscious of the tsunami of rhetoric surrounding Kennedy’s presidential run or leading up to his confirmation as HHS secretary, you might suspect something like “Whatever you do, do not vaccinate your babies! Vaccines will make you sick!! After all, they killed all the babies in Samoa, a billion dead babies!!!”
So, how does Kennedy actually start? The opening line, in italics, is “MMR vaccine is crucial to avoiding potentially deadly disease.” Read that again. Wild way for the unrepentant king of the anti-vax community and a prodigious peddler of alternative snake oils to begin. Right? It's almost like the narrative and threats about him don't jive with his words and actions. But he continues (the bolding and links are in the original text):
As the Secretary of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, I am deeply concerned about the recent measles outbreak. This situation has escalated rapidly, with the Texas Department of State Health Services (DSHS) reporting 146 confirmed cases since late January 2025, primarily in the South Plains region. Tragically, this outbreak has claimed the life of a school-aged child, the first measles-related fatality in the United States in over a decade.
Vaccines not only protect individual children from measles, but also contribute to community immunity, protecting those who are unable to be vaccinated due to medical reasons.
Measles is a highly contagious respiratory illness with certain health risks, especially to unvaccinated individuals. The virus spreads through direct contact with infectious droplets when an infected person breathes, coughs, or sneezes. Early symptoms include high fever, cough, runny nose, and red, watery eyes, followed by a characteristic body rash. Most cases are mild, but rare complications can be severe, including pneumonia, blindness, and encephalitis. Prior to the introduction of the vaccine in the 1960s, virtually every child in the United States contracted measles. For example, in the United States, from 1953 to 1962, on average there were 530,217 confirmed cases and 440 deaths, a case fatality rate of 1 in 1,205 cases.
He carries on. But, apparently, opening with and then reiterating, in bold, how essential the MMR shot is to protection from deadly disease is, according to some, an egregious sleight-of-hand, a fatal shifting of focus from vaccines. Apparently his expression of deep concern to the whole nation and sharing news of the loss of life is him downplaying the seriousness of the situation and contributing to his ultimately delivering “the wrong message”.
After another whole page of information, the HHS secretary writes:
As healthcare providers, community leaders, and policymakers, we have a shared responsibility to protect public health. This includes ensuring that accurate information about vaccine safety and efficacy is disseminated. We must engage with communities to understand their concerns, provide culturally competent education, and make vaccines readily accessible for all those who want them.
Radical. Fringe. He then goes on to offer the really scary bit. (Prepare yourself.) He writes:
It is also our responsibility to provide up-to-date guidance on available therapeutic medications. While there is no approved antiviral for those who may be infected, CDC has recently updated their recommendation supporting administration of vitamin A under the supervision of a physician for those with mild, moderate, and severe infection. Studies have found that vitamin A can dramatically reduce measles mortality.
Parents play a pivotal role in safeguarding their children’s health. All parents should consult with their healthcare providers to understand their options to get the MMR vaccine. The decision to vaccinate is a personal one. Vaccines not only protect individual children from measles, but also contribute to community immunity, protecting those who are unable to be vaccinated due to medical reasons.
Tens of thousands died with, or of, measles annually in 19th Century America. By 1960 -- before the vaccine’s introduction -- improvements in sanitation and nutrition had eliminated 98% of measles deaths. Good nutrition remains a best defense against most chronic and infectious illnesses. Vitamins A, C, and D, and foods rich in vitamins B12, C, and E should be part of a balanced diet.
Yes, I think you can see why “doctors are worried”. Facts and basic health advice (combined with references to relevant journal articles, leading statistics sites, and CDC information guides) can be terrifying business.
Unsurprisingly, the folks at CNN read Kennedy’s message to America, too. And every day since they’ve run with articles and news segments with themes and titles like:
And, my personal favourite from CNN:
Instead of vaccines, RFK Jr. focuses on unconventional measles treatments, driving worries about misinformation.
I hope we agree these are just amazing offerings. Is there’s no introspection of any kind among anyone on staff with any of these organizations? Well, right on message, other outlets did their part, too.
ABC gave us things like:
NBC? They put up stuff of this sort:
Opinion pieces landed in the Washington Post with titles like:
And what do you imagine the New York Times went with?
As Measles Spreads, Kennedy Embraces Remedies Like Cod Liver Oil. Their subheading highlighted “In an interview, the H.H.S. secretary claimed that unconventional treatments were helping patients but described vaccination as a personal choice.” Wild.
The New Yorker published:
The Dangers of R.F.K., Jr.,’s Measles Response. Hilariously, they paraphrased the NYT subheading and gave us: “H.H.S. Secretary has touted over-the-counter remedies and stressed that the decision to vaccinate is 'personal.'”
Looking at all that, we might take a great leap and presume these newsfolk and significant swathes of their audience (doubtless among the “my body, my choice” crowd) stand proudly upon an unwavering humanist principle that people have, or should have, an inalienable right to choose what they put in their bodies. (A great leap, of course, because they seem to reject the notion that vaccination is a personal choice, unaware or unwilling to accept that when cases were in the hundreds of thousands [not hundreds] and deaths in the hundreds [not single digits], all in living memory, public health determined mass vaccination was unnecessary and vaccination a personal choice.) We might also assume these same folks place themselves among the loudest defenders of minorities. That doesn't seem like an obviously silly assessment. Noticing this orientation then, how could we fail to ask why (or even how) these people would deny others exerting their sacred rights to basic bodily autonomy and choice (largely members of tiny and highly insular religious minorities) even any suggestions for staying disease-free or getting well. Obviously, I'm assuming that, surely, reporters and doctors aren't arguing these people should have no such rights to their minority status, faith, or most basic freedoms. If a Hippie in California (2014), an Orthodox Jew in New York (2019), or a Mennonite in Texas (2025) is facing down what journalists and pundits and medical professionals insist is an “explosion of deadly illness”, then why not at least pretend to have an interest in helping folks stay safe and get better? They're either operating in a deeply cynical manner and telling us vaccination should not be voluntary or that nutrition and maintaining a standard of health is irresponsible. What am I missing? What's the alternative?
Given all their health- and public health-related offerings from 2020 to present, we might also ask if what these same media outlets and experts are constantly pressing out is closer to an ideal offering or even just what they would tell you they're up to? Isn't all this in effect: “You cannot trust this illegitimate government!” or “The head of public health is trying to kill you and your babies!” or “ITS AN UNPRECEDENTED AND UNMITIGATED CATASTROPHE! RUN FOR THE HILLS!” That's all I'm reading here. Where's the responsible reporting? Isn’t all of it the opposite of what they would insist they’re up to? Well, I’m convinced the press and their institutional and expert allies are, in fact, the very thing they say they hate the most. And I'm also quite sure they'll continue to press everything they say they hate out across any and all media (somehow still) available to them, and do so day and night for as long as they're able.
ADDED CONTEXT - March 16, 2025
Related to all this, I keep reading about RFK Jr. being responsible for an outbreak of measles in Samoa. Some accounting has him as the cause and directly responsible for killing people (going there and raising chaos, somehow manipulating people into not vaccinating for measles, before or during the outbreak, or something) while others merely suggest he made the situation far worse (maybe by restricting their vaccine program or encouraging folks to not seek medical attention or to find unproven traditional alternatives, or something.)
There are a hundred articles in serious publications and, what, a million posts to this effect from doctors of all kinds and people who have the knowledge and skills to assess the situation? Still, I can't find any good evidence for either assessment. Even just looking at basic background facts (like the timeline, the island's well-documented vaccination situation, local media and culture...) the argument doesn't work. To me, the situation looks as close to being the opposite of what's presented as possible, shy of Kennedy actually administering measles vaccines to babies himself.
THE SAMOA VACCINE CONTEXT
UNICEF and WHO estimate that the measles vaccination rate in Samoa fell from 92% in 2013 to 67% in 2017 and all the way down to around 40% in 2018, though some media sources cite a number closer to 30%. (Herd immunity is said to require approximately 95%.) This timeline and scenario is critical.
After the crisis, the local health authority publicly took credit for the situation. The New York Times reported Dr. Take Naseri, director-general of Samoa’s Ministry of Health, saying “We’ve been slack on the routine immunization, I think we have been quite complacent.” Though there is some blame attributed to a growing local alternative health and traditional healing movement in Samoa (most of whom are anti-vax or more broadly skeptics of Western medicine) they don't blame one particularly evil American who showed up and cast a spell on the nation. Right.
VACCINE-RELATED DEATHS
On July 6th, 2018, a pair of one-year-olds died immediately after being given their MMR vaccine. These sudden deaths from unknown cause, seemingly the vaccines, resulted in the government suspending measles vaccination for nearly a year while conducting a full investigation, contrary to advice from global health authorities. But, I think we can agree, something had gone terribly wrong and parents were rightfully freaked out.
The combination of the Samoan government immediately ceasing vaccination and the criminal investigation into the nurses responsible (and the strange court case that accompanied it) are said to have only worsened the vaccine panic along with shaking public faith in the local health care and legal systems, as reported by the Australian Broadcasting Corporation.
KENNEDY
RFK Jr. travelled to Samoa a year after the vaccine-related deaths in Samoa, in June of 2019, and met with the Prime Minister. (Kennedy previously wrote and more recently attested during US senate hearings that he was in Samoa to discuss “the introduction of a medical informatics system that would allow Samoa’s health officials to assess, in real time, the efficacy and safety of every medical intervention or drug on overall health.” There is no record of him speaking to the government or to the public about vaccines while in Samoa.)
It was only in July of 2019 that authorities finally determined the cause of the childrens’ deaths, that it wasn’t the vaccines but medical error.
EPIDEMIC
It just so happened that 2019 would be a particularly bad year for measles around the world — which created a catastrophic scenario for the record number of unvaccinated infants of Samoa. In 2019 it was reported that measles had hit every region of the planet, with the virus emerging in many places where it was said to be officially eliminated, such as the US and Canada. Worldwide, reported cases jumped 300% in the first three months of 2019, compared with the same period last year.
The measles outbreak in Samoa took off about four months after RFK Jr's visit, in parallel with an outbreak in New Zealand. The Samoan Ministry of Health officially declared a measles outbreak on Oct 16th, 2019. A report in the Lancet from 2020 explained the outbreak took off, entering “exponential growth phase", between Oct 6th to Nov 16th, 2019. On November 16th, after the death toll reached 15, officials in Samoa declared a national emergency. By the end of the month fatalities reached 40.
On December 2nd, 2019, with thousands of sick and deaths mounting, Samoa’s government eventually ordered a government shutdown, imposed a curfew, and cancelled all public gatherings while assigning all available civil servants to a mandatory, door-to-door vaccination campaign. All unvaccinated households were required to display a red cloth in front of their homes to aid mass vaccination and warn others of their status. Medical teams from Australia, New Zealand, France, and the United Kingdom assisted Samoan medical authorities.
At the same time, Samoa arrested a local traditional healer and anti-vaxxer (whose kids were and are vaccinated against measles) for "interfering with the vaccination campaign." In December of 2019 and January of 2020 the Prime Minister continued to refuse calls for an independent inquiry into the cause and consequences of the epidemic.
Mandatory vaccination resulted in 96% of the Samoan population becoming vaccinated — but not before there were 83 deaths, most of whom were unvaccinated infants.
SO WHAT?
Well, even if you reject almost all of this for some reason, at the very least you must acknowledge that:
A) Vaccine coverage went from 40% before his arrival to as high as possible, 96%, after
B) Kennedy isn't obviously the cause of the epidemic and didn't obviously exacerbate it
Or, I'd love to hear how the situation looks radically different from what I've offered above.
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